American voting patterns have undergone significant changes over the past eight years. The following outlines these developments. President Donald Trump is anticipated to secure victory in several crucial battleground states, positioning him to potentially reclaim the presidency for a second term.
An analysis of the political landscape reveals notable shifts across three consecutive elections featuring Trump. CNN’s exit poll data from 2016, 2020, and 2024 illustrates the impact of a struggling economy on Vice President Kamala Harris, her inability to increase support among women despite a rise in backing for abortion rights, and the notable attraction of Latino men to Trump. Several key differences have emerged over the years: Gender dynamics: Harris’ advantage among women this year did not surpass that of President Joe Biden or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which poses a concerning indication for the vice president, especially as she sought to engage female voters on abortion issues.
Trump continued to hold an advantage among male voters. Latino male support for Trump: Since 2016, Latino voters, particularly men, have increasingly leaned towards Trump. In 2024, Latino men shifted their support to him for the first time, having previously favored Biden by 23 points in 2020. While Latina women still preferred Harris, their support was less robust compared to their backing for either Clinton or Biden. Harris retained strong support among Black men and women, while Trump’s lead among White men diminished. Growing educational divide: White voters without college degrees have consistently formed the core of Trump’s support, a trend that remains unchanged. However, a notable shift has occurred among White college-educated voters, who narrowly supported Trump in 2016 but favored Harris by approximately 10 points in 2024, a division evident among both genders.
Harris achieved a 20-point advantage among White women with college degrees, marking an improvement over both Biden and Clinton. Conversely, she experienced a decline in support among voters of color across all educational backgrounds.
